Base Metals Market Views - 26.09.2016

Base Metals Market Views - 26.09.2016

LME base metals apart from Lead traded higher last week as weakness in the DX post status quo in the latest FOMC statement boosted gains in the dollar denominated commodities. MCX base metals except Lead traded higher in line with international trends.

Nickel

Nickel prices surged the most, by 4.7 percent last week, to the highest since 15th August, as an environment undersecretary said on Wednesday that a dozen more Philippine mines, mostly nickel projects, are in danger of being suspended in an ongoing environmental crackdown on the sector.

Copper

LME Copper prices jumped by 1.7 percent to $4855/tonne as a divided Federal Reserve left its policy interest rate unchanged and indicated that the committee will look into more data before taking the call. The Fed also projected a less aggressive rise in rates next year and in 2018, fanning expectations bond yields will stay low in the foreseeable future.

Besides, International Copper Study Group said global refined copper market for June showed an apparent production deficit of around 83,000 mt, due to strong Chinese apparent refined copper demand.

However, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Chinese Copper production climbed to 743,000 metric tons in August from 722,000 tons a month earlier and 663,000 tons last year.
MCX copper prices traded higher by 1.5 percent last week to close at Rs.327.8 per kg.

Crude Oil - Market Views 26.09.2016

Crude Oil - Market Views 26.09.2016


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WTI oil prices rose by 1.7 percent last week to close at $44.5 per barrel boosted as U.S. government data showed a surprising crude inventory drop. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude stockpiles fell 6.2 million barrels last week, bringing the draw to more
than 21 million barrels for this month Also, Oil prices got more support from the dollar's slide a day after the Federal Reserve kept U.S. interest rates unchanged. However, Crude futures gave back some gains after Reuters reported that a two-day expert-level meeting of the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries on production cooperation had yielded no major breakthrough. The meeting was held in advance of Sept. 26-28 talks in Algeria between OPEC and other major oil producers to discuss a potential output freeze.Also, news that Saudi may cut supply if Iran freezes output was supportive. The Saudis pumped a record 10.69 million barrels a day in
August, compared with 10.2 million in January, and Boutarfa said Algeria wants major producers to cut their collective output by 1 million barrels a day. On the MCX, oil prices rose by 2.8 percent to close at Rs.2978 per barrel.

Silver Market Views - 26.09.2016

Silver Market Views

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Spot silver prices rose by 2.7 percent last week to close at $19.7 per ounce in line with rise in gold prices and weakness in dollar index. On the MCX, silver prices rose by 1.7 percent to close at Rs.46817 per kg

Gold Market Views - 26.09.2016

Gold Market Views


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Last week, spot gold prices rose by 1.8 percent to close at $1337.2 per ounce after the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates on hold sent the dollar to its lowest level since the start of last week.The Fed stayed pat on rates but indicated it could still tighten monetary policy in the world's biggest economy by the end of the year.Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.69 percent to 950.92 tonnes last week. On the MCX, gold prices rose by 1.2 percent to close at Rs.31281 per 10 gms.

Freeze in oil output looks likely in the Sept 26-29 OPEC meeting - 26.09.2016

Freeze in oil output looks likely in the Sept 26-29 OPEC meeting


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Possible deal to support oil prices by the world's leading producer countries may last for one year, the secretary-general of OPEC said on Tuesday, longer than other officials have indicated.OPEC and
non-member producers including Russia are discussing a deal to stabilise the market by at least freezing output, although key details such as the timing and baseline for any deal have yet to
emerge."One year, we are looking at one year," OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said, RIA news agency reported.Russia and members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hold an informal meeting in Algiers on Sept. 28. Algeria's energy minister said on Monday any OPEC move to freeze output would help balance the market for at least six months. (Reuters)

Hot Naturalgas Tips, 2nd session: 26.Sep.2016

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 COPPER TREND - UP 
 CRUDEOIL TREND - DOWN 
 GOLD TREND - DOWN

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy ALUMINIUM (SEP) SA 108.7 SL 108.3 Target 109.1 / 109.5
 ALUMINIUM (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 108.60 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short ALUMINIUM (SEP) SB 108.2 SL 108.6 Target 107.8 / 107.4

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy COPPER (NOV) SA 327.9 SL 326.1 Target 328.9 / 330.4
 COPPER (NOV) : INTRADAY TREND UP SL : 326.60 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short COPPER (NOV) SB 325.7 SL 327.3 Target 324.7 / 323.2

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy CRUDEOIL (OCT) SA 3029 SL 2977 Target 3043 / 3058
 CRUDEOIL (OCT) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 3020 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short CRUDEOIL (OCT) SB 2961 SL 3013 Target 2947 / 2932

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy GOLD (OCT) SA 31316 SL 31229 Target 31341 / 31361
 GOLD (OCT) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 31312 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short GOLD (OCT) SB 31204 SL 31291 Target 31179 / 31159

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy LEAD (SEP) SA 127.3 SL 127.0 Target 127.8 / 128.2
 LEAD (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 127.50 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short LEAD (SEP) SB 126.9 SL 127.3 Target 126.4 / 126.0

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy NATURALGAS (SEP) SA 199.3 SL 198.8 Target 200.1 / 200.8
 NATURALGAS (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND UP SL : 195.60 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short NATURALGAS (SEP) SB 198.9 SL 199.4 Target 198.1 / 197.4

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy NICKEL (SEP) SA 703.1 SL 692.9 Target 709.1 / 715.1
 NICKEL (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 701.00 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short NICKEL (SEP) SB 689.7 SL 699.9 Target 683.7 / 677.7

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy SILVER (DEC) SA 46762 SL 46588 Target 46862 / 46982
 SILVER (DEC) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 46810 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short SILVER (DEC) SB 46538 SL 46712 Target 46438 / 46318

12:38 PM INTRADAY Buy ZINC (SEP) SA 150.6 SL 150.2 Target 151.0 / 151.4
 ZINC (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 150.80 
12:38 PM INTRADAY Short ZINC (SEP) SB 150.1 SL 150.5 Target 149.7 / 149.3

Mcx Commodity Market News For CARDAMOM, CRUDEOIL, ZINC : Morning Session - 26.9.2016

Mcx Commodity Market News : Morning Session - 26.9.2016


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Muted demand drags down cardamom futures by 0.61%
26/09/2016 11:54
Cardamom futures were trading lower during the morning trade in the domestic market on Monday as investors and speculators remained on the sidelines in the agri-commodity amid muted physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Further, sufficient supplies amid higher physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions, too influenced the downtrend in the domestic cardamom prices. At the MCX, cardamom futures for October 2016 contract is trading at Rs 1,122 per kg, down by 0.61 per cent, after opening at Rs 1,119, against a previous close of Rs 1,128.90. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 1,115 (at 11:55 hours).

Oil higher as output talks eyed
26/09/2016 11:19
Crude oil futures rose during late morning trade in the domestic market on Monday as investors and speculators booked fresh positions in the energy commodity ahead of a meeting between major oil producers this week to discuss possible output curbs in a bid to help ease a global supply glut and support prices.
Algerian Energy Minister reportedly said that Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading crude exporter, is ready to slash output to January levels in a bid to convince other top producers to agree slashing production in Algeria this week.
Marking the twelfth increase in 13 weeks, the US oil drilling count climbed by 2 to 418 last week.
At the MCX, crude oil futures for October 2016 contract is trading at Rs 3,002 per barrel, up by 0.81 per cent, after opening at Rs 2,996, against a previous close of Rs 2,978. It touched the intra-day high of Rs 3,004. (At 11:13 AM).

Zinc futures slide on weak demand
26/09/2016 10:37
Zinc futures were trading lower during the morning trade in the domestic market on Monday as investors and speculators trimmed their positions amid a fall in demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot markets.
At the MCX, zinc futures for September 2016 contract is trading at Rs 150.75 per kg, drop by 0.46 per cent, after opening at Rs 151.05, against a previous close of Rs 151.45. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 150.55 (at 10:42 hours).

Mcx Commodity News for GOLD, SILVER, CRUDEOIL : Morning Session - 26.9.2016

Mcx Commodity Market News : Morning Session - 26.9.2016

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Crude oil dips as chances of output deal decline
26/09/2016 08:58
Crude oil futures closed lower in the domestic market on Friday as traders weighed the latest talk from major oil producers ahead of their meeting next week that's expected to focus on production levels. The meeting planned for the last day of the International Energy Forum, which will be held in Algeria Monday through Wednesday, will only offer a chance for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers to consult with each other about production levels.
At the MCX, crude oil futures for October 2016 contract closed at Rs 2978 per barrel, down by 3.97 per cent, after opening at Rs 3090, against a previous close of Rs 3101. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 2967.


Silver dips on weak global cues
26/09/2016 08:57
Silver futures closed lower in the domestic market on Friday as participants engaged in trimming their positions taking weak cues from global market. Marketmen attributed the fall in silver prices at futures trade to a weak trend in the precious metals overseas and profit-booking by participants at existing levels.
At the MCX, silver futures for December 2016 contract closed at Rs 46,800 per kg, down by 1.61 per cent, after opening at Rs 47,289, against a previous close of Rs 47,568. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 46,686.

Gold dips on feeble global cues
26/09/2016 08:56
Gold futures closed lower in the domestic market on Friday after the Federal Reserve held off on raising interest rates and scaled back the number of rate hikes it expects next year.
The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.
At the MCX, gold futures for October 2016 contract ended at Rs 31,306 per 10 grams, down by 0.08 per cent, after opening at Rs 31,242, against a previous close of Rs 31,332. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 31,205.

Chinese Copper Output Jumps to Six-Month High as Capacity Grows - 26.09.2016

Chinese Copper Output Jumps to Six-Month High as Capacity Grows


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China, the world’s top producer of refined copper, boosted output to the highest level in at least six months as domestic smelters expanded capacity amid favorable margins.Production climbed to
743,000 metric tons in August from 722,000 tons a month earlier and 663,000 tons last year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Output rose 8.7 percent to a
record 5.5 million tons in Jan - Aug, data showed.

Commodity Market Overview - 26.09.2016

Commodity Market Overview - 26.09.2016

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Asian markets are currently trading lower as investors focus their
attention towards the US Presidential debate between Donald Trump
and Hillary Clinton which is likely to take place tomorrow.
US Dollar Index traded lower by 0.4 percent in the last week as
markets discounted the outcome of Sep’16 FOMC meeting where the
interest rates was left unchanged. The US central bank slowed the
pace of future hikes and cut its longer run interest rate forecast to
2.9 percent from 3 percent, but hinted at the possibility of a rate hike
by the end of this year. The committee also reduced its expectations
for economic growth and unemployment rate this year to 1.8 percent
and 4.7 percent respectively from 2 percent and 4.8 percent.
Moreover, disappointing release of existing home sales data form the
nation yesterday further acted as a negative factor. From 5.38M in
July’16, it decreased to 5.33M in Aug’16. All the above factors dented
the demand for US Dollar which made a weekly low of 94.95 and
closed at 95.39 levels on Friday.
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in the last week
tracking gains in emerging markets after the US Federal Reserve kept
interest rates unchanged. This kept the domestic markets i.e. Sensex
and Nifty higher. Moreover, fresh dollar selling by exporter sand
banks amid lower DX in the overseas market kept the Indian Rupee
positive.
S&P Global Ratings, on 19th Sep’16, projected India to grow at 8
percent over the next few years as India's structural reform agenda
has maintained strong momentum and will grow higher in future,
with most recently GST passage.
For the month of September 2016, FII inflows in equities totaled at
Rs. 5643.45 crores ($845.10 million) as on 23rd September’16. Year to
date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs. 46493.18 crores
($6982.25 million) as on 23rd September’16.
Indian Rupee made a weekly high of 66.52 and closed at 66.70 levels
on Friday.

Intraday Crudeoilmini Tips, 1st session: 26.Sep.2016


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10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy ALUMINI (SEP) SA 108.4 SL 108.0 Target 108.8 / 109.2
 ALUMINI (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 151.50 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short ALUMINI (SEP) SB 107.9 SL 108.3 Target 107.5 / 107.1

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy COPPERM (NOV) SA 328.4 SL 326.6 Target 329.4 / 330.9
 COPPERM (NOV) : INTRADAY TREND UP SL : 326.60 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short COPPERM (NOV) SB 326.1 SL 327.8 Target 325.1 / 323.6

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy CRUDEOILM (OCT) SA 3035 SL 2983 Target 3049 / 3064
 CRUDEOILM (OCT) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 3020 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short CRUDEOILM (OCT) SB 2967 SL 3019 Target 2953 / 2938

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy GOLDGUINEA (SEP) SA 24934 SL 24850 Target 25034 / 25184
 GOLDGUINEA (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 24970 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short GOLDGUINEA (SEP) SB 24822 SL 24906 Target 24722 / 24572

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy GOLDM (OCT) SA 31295 SL 31208 Target 31395 / 31545
 GOLDM (OCT) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 31328 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short GOLDM (OCT) SB 31183 SL 31270 Target 31083 / 30933

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy LEADMINI (SEP) SA 127.4 SL 127.1 Target 127.9 / 128.3
 LEADMINI (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 127.70 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short LEADMINI (SEP) SB 127.0 SL 127.4 Target 126.5 / 126.1 

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy NICKELM (SEP) SA 701.9 SL 701.4 Target 704.9 / 707.9
 NICKELM (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 195.60 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short NICKELM (SEP) SB 701.5 SL 702.0 Target 698.5 / 695.5

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy SILVERM (NOV) SA 46712 SL 46550 Target 46912 / 47012
 SILVERM (NOV) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 46932.00 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short SILVERM (NOV) SB 46488 SL 46651 Target 46288 / 46188

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy SILVERMIC (NOV) SA 46726 SL 46552 Target 46926 / 47026
 SILVERMIC (NOV) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 46930 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short SILVERMIC (NOV) SB 46502 SL 46676 Target 46302 / 46202

10:37 AM INTRADAY Buy ZINCMINI (SEP) SA 151.0 SL 150.6 Target 151.4 / 151.8
 ZINCMINI (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 151.50 
10:37 AM INTRADAY Short ZINCMINI (SEP) SB 150.5 SL 150.9 Target 150.1 / 149.7

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 COPPER TREND - UP 
 CRUDEOIL TREND - DOWN 
 GOLD TREND - DOWN 

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy ALUMINIUM (SEP) SA 108.4 SL 108.0 Target 108.8 / 109.2
 ALUMINIUM (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 108.70 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short ALUMINIUM (SEP) SB 107.9 SL 108.3 Target 107.5 / 107.1

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy COPPER (NOV) SA 328.3 SL 326.5 Target 329.3 / 330.8
 COPPER (NOV) : INTRADAY TREND UP SL : 326.60 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short COPPER (NOV) SB 326.1 SL 327.7 Target 325.1 / 323.6

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy CRUDEOIL (OCT) SA 3035 SL 2983 Target 3049 / 3064
 CRUDEOIL (OCT) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 3020 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short CRUDEOIL (OCT) SB 2967 SL 3019 Target 2953 / 2938

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy GOLD (OCT) SA 31282 SL 31195 Target 31307 / 31327
 GOLD (OCT) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 31328 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short GOLD (OCT) SB 31170 SL 31257 Target 31145 / 31125

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy LEAD (SEP) SA 127.4 SL 127.1 Target 127.9 / 128.3
 LEAD (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 127.70 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short LEAD (SEP) SB 127.0 SL 127.4 Target 126.5 / 126.1

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy NATURALGAS (SEP) SA 198.9 SL 198.4 Target 199.7 / 200.4
 NATURALGAS (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND UP SL : 195.60 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short NATURALGAS (SEP) SB 198.5 SL 199.0 Target 197.7 / 197.0

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy NICKEL (SEP) SA 708.4 SL 698.2 Target 714.4 / 720.4
 NICKEL (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 707.30 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short NICKEL (SEP) SB 695.0 SL 705.2 Target 689.0 / 683.0

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy SILVER (DEC) SA 46694 SL 46520 Target 46794 / 46914
 SILVER (DEC) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 46947 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short SILVER (DEC) SB 46470 SL 46644 Target 46370 / 46250

10:35 AM INTRADAY Buy ZINC (SEP) SA 151.0 SL 150.6 Target 151.4 / 151.8
 ZINC (SEP) : INTRADAY TREND DOWN SL : 151.50 
10:35 AM INTRADAY Short ZINC (SEP) SB 150.5 SL 150.9 Target 150.1 / 149.7

MCX INDIAN COMMODITY INTRADAY SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS: 26.Sep.2016


MCX INDIAN COMMODITY INTRADAY SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS: 26.Sep.2016


Weekly Indian Sector Outlook -26.09.2016 -30.09.2016

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

 Seen volatile next week before F&O expiry Thu


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   Domestic  equities  are  likely  to  be  volatile  next  week  as  traders  roll  over  positions  to  the  October derivatives contracts ahead of the expiry of the September series on Thursday. Market participants believe  the  index  will  face  strong  resistance  at  the  psychological  9000-point  mark.  In  a  lacklustre session yesterday, the Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex ended 0.4% lowers each at 8831.55 points and 28668.22 respectively. Investors, especially foreign institutional investors, booked profits after buying in the last two sessions. FIIs yesterday net  sold shares worth  nearly 3  bln rupees after net buying over  5  bln  rupees  worth  of  shares  in  the  last  two  days.  The  underlying  bias  for  equities,  though, remains bullish as indices approach their lifetime highs. Some of sectors are being re-rated which is what  the  bull  market  does,  and  identifying  those  trends  can  lead  to decent  capital  appreciation in those stocks.   Market participants are upbeat about pharmaceutical, bank and energy stocks, and  expect them to extend gains next week. The Nifty Bank index is expected to rise towards 20400 points next week, and if traders book profits then losses in the index are seen capped at 19700. Yesterday, the index ended  at  19901.80  points,  down  1%.  Pharmaceutical  stocks  are  likely  to  gain  on  optimism  that regulatory issues around companies in the sector will be resolved in the next one year. On Monday, investors would focus on shares of real estate and infrastructure companies, hotels and hospitals as SEBI has made changes to norms for investing in real estate and infrastructure investment trusts.

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

 Mixed next week, large-caps seen under pressure 


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  Stocks  of  cement  manufacturers  are  seen  trading  on  a  mixed  note  next  week,  with  large-cap companies such as ACC Ltd  and Ambuja Cements expected to bear the brunt  of higher valuations, while  mid-  and  small-caps  likely  to  fare  better.  For  cement  stocks,  the  profit  bookings  have  just started. Ambuja Cement stocks fell 1.3% during the week and analysts expect it to remain weak next week as well. Among large-caps in the sector, UltraTech Cement is seen bucking the negative trend. It  has  been  in  the  positive  territory  and  is  expected  to  continue  to  be  there.  Companies  with operations in north and east India are likely to face some resistance due to weak demand and on the impact of the ban on sand mining in Uttar Pradesh. Companies having a presence in west and south India are likely to fare better.


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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

 Seen range bound; bias remains positive overall 


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 Seen range bound; bias remains positive overall   Stocks  of  major  automobile  companies  are  seen  trading  in a  narrow range  next  week,  with  some possibility of a correction, as most of the stocks have  performed well  and  are in the "overbought" category.  However,  bias  for  the  consumer  discretionary  sector  remains  positive.  Payout  of  arrears after  the  salary  hike  of  government  employees  and  good  monsoon  rains  are  seen  lifting  demand during Sep-Oct. Earlier this month, the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufactures revised upward its projection for growth in sales of passenger vehicles in 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) to double digit, from 7-8% seen at the beginning of the year. The CNX Auto index, which ended higher by 1.06% on week at 10224.95 points yesterday, is seen trading sideways in line with broader indices over the next few sessions.   Stocks of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd has been trading in the "overbought" zone in the last few weeks and analysts see some correction in the stock going forward. For the longer term, however, the stock remains positive, backed by strong fundamentals and a good order book. Analysts are also bullish on Tata Motors Ltd in the long term but expect some pullback in the stock. Two-wheeler companies are seen consolidating at current levels with stocks like Bajaj Auto Ltd, Hero Motocorp Ltd entering into overbought zone. Analysts expect some pullback in Hero Motocorp Ltd. Shares of Bajaj Auto Ltd and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd are seen trading in a narrow range next week.


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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

 May fall next week; Bharti Airtel seen outlier


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  Telecom stocks, except Bharti Airtel Ltd, will continue to decline over the next week due to impact of 4G services rollout by Reliance Jio Infocomm. The stocks will remain dull in the run up to the largest ever spectrum auction in India on Oct 1. Airwaves for high-speed 4G services worth over 5 trln rupee at  the base  price will  be  auctioned by  the government. But  Bharti Airtel,  country's largest telecom operator,  saw some  recovery this  week and is likely to  rise more.  In a  fight back  to Reliance Jio's offer, Bharti Airtel yesterday launched its most aggressive data plan that offered users unlimited 4G data for  90 days for 1,495 rupees. Airtel  is forming a pull-back. The upward trend for Bharti Airtel may not last beyond the end of next week.   Stocks of Idea Cellular and Reliance Communications Ltd are likely to decline next week. Idea Cellular has been the worst  performing stock since  Jio's entry.  Reliance  Communications  may continue  the downward  trend  until  clarity  emerges  on  the  plans  of  the  Anil  Ambani-group  company's  proposed merger of its mobile operations with Maxis Communications-owned Aircel Ltd into a separate entity. The  market  will  wait  for  details  of  the  final  debt  on  the  books  of  Reliance  Communications.  The telecom sector will remain under pressure over the next couple of weeks as operators typically add hundreds of  millions of  rupees  in  debt to  fund  spectrum  purchases.  Recently, Vodafone  Group  Plc made an equity infusion of 477 bln rupees into its fully-owned subsidiary Vodafone India, a part of which will be used to buy airwaves. Seven operators have submitted their letters of interest to the government for the auction


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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

 May fall next week as raw material cost high


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   Stocks  of  fast  moving  consumer  goods  companies  may  fall  in  the  coming  days  as  the  sector continues to face pressure from rising cost of raw materials. Prices of crude oil rose 10.8% on month, palm oil over 20% and sugar about 2% in August. Revenue momentum in the fast moving consumer goods  sector  will  continue  to  remain  subdued.  Though  expectations  of  an  earnings  recovery  are strong in the Oct-Mar period owing to normal monsoon this year, the green shoots may appear very late. The extent of recovery may not be as strong as market expectations.    In the Jun-Sep monsoon season, India received 813.1 mm of rainfall until Thursday, 96% of the long period average. A normal monsoon could also see the demand for household insecticide business rise during  the  Jul-Sep  quarter.  The  brokerage  has  a  'buy'  rating  for  stocks  of  Emami  Ltd  and  a  'sell' rating for  Godrej Consumer Products Ltd.  A pick-up in consumer demand in the  festive season will
   help  companies  perform  better  in  the  immediate  quarter.  HUL  (Hindustan  Unilever  Ltd),  given  its widest rural reach, is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this pick-up in consumer demand.   Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd, the food service company that operates Domino's Pizza and Dunkin Donuts chains in India, may face a tough time ahead. The resignation of the company's chief executive Ajay Kaul on Sep 19 after being at the helm for 11 years is seen by many in the market as an outcome of the  company's  poor  show  in  the  Apr-Jun  quarter  this  year.  The  company  reported  a  net  profit  of 189.9  mln  rupees in  Apr-Jun,  down  31%  on  year.  The  company's  volume  in  the  same-store  sales category fell 3.2% on year. The de-growth in same-store sales was a "matter of concern". The long-term  story  of  food  service  industry  is  in  place  and  Jubilant  FoodWorks  Ltd  may  benefit  from  the demand revival. But until same store sales improves, margins and earnings may remain suppressed


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Banks Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

 Banks Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.09.2016

  Seen volatile next week ahead of Sep F&O expiry


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   Banks stocks are likely to be volatile next week, ahead of the expiry of the September futures and options contracts on Thursday. The Nifty Bank is expected to trade in the range of 20500-19500 next Week. Yesterday, the index ended at 19907.80, down 1% for the week. Consolidation is expected in the  broader  market.  A  correction  in  the  market  is  likely  due  to  profit  booking  as  the  Nifty  50 approaches 9000 levels. However, we continue to feel that the outperformance in banking stocks is likely to continue, unless the index holds above 19700 levels. Stocks of private sector banks are likely to  continue being preferred compared  to  those of  their  state-owned peers. Next  week,  build-up of long  and  short  positions  is  seen  in  Allahabad  Bank  and  Kotak  Mahindra  Bank,  respectively,  while unwinding of long bets is seen in YES Bank.
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